Now what?

Now that it's almost well and truly over, now that we almost know for
sure, I thought I'd share my experience of the U.S. elections from within the next-door neighbour.

First, an analyst here has described Canada's position towards the United States as "sleeping next to an insomniac elephant". The elephant doesn't actually trample you. It's just that it's really hard to sleep because its every itch, every hiccup, every snore shakes the bed you're sleeping on.

There isn't much debate about that one.

Another thing is that the Liberal party now in power as a minority government in Canada is considered to have more political affinities with the American Democrats, and the Conservative would be the "equivalent" of Republicans. An overwhelming number of Canadians supported Kerry during those elections.

I myself did not realise how much I had been against Bush's re-election until I nearly burst into tears this morning upon learning that Ohio is almost sure to add to Bush's vote count. And in any case, they have Congress AND the Senate now.

Americans studying in Canada were amazed at the interest with which Canadians followed the Presidential debates. Many have said that the elections in America were more important than Canadian elections to Canadians. (Canada's PM is Paul Martin btw. Nobody outside Canada knows I think). That's not quite true since the election this year here was well-fought and the minority government is a first in nearly 25 years. And Canadians are anything BUT "États-Uniens" (an expression used by Quebecers to distinguish between Américains -those living on the continent- and those living in the country États-Unis).

The campaign was hotly discussed in both Anglophone and Francophone media, Bush almost always managing to make his way to the "Dumb" post. Canadians needed Kerry in power in order to re-open the border for cattle and medicine among other things. But that's the least of it. More than anything, Canada needed to restore itself as a relevant interlocutor for the U.S.

Former PM Jean Chrétien's refusal to join the war in Iraq simply morphed Canada's status from "gentle neighbour" to "gentle hinterland" in Bush's books. A new President would have helped. The real consequences are yet to be seen. At best, I would say, more of the same.

Don't get me wrong. I have tried not to be a senseless anti-Bush ranter. I acknowledge that as a leader to his people, as a master politician, George Bush did what he should have done after September 11th: offer maximum security to his people. I have imagined standing in his shoes.

But I question the success of his endeavour. Hindsight makes things easier and any judgment based on it is handicapped by the bias. But the world today is a more polarised place, a more dangerous place for Americans than it was four years ago. Yet the Americans just told Bush not only that he has done things well, but that there's no need to change a thing.

My hope for Kerry was at the level of perceptions. Bush carries his father's history and imagines that imposing his black and white thinking on the grey world of terrorism will make them to fit into his worldview. It's not working. Yes, extremists are just that and their issues are with the whole American way of life, not Republicans or Democrats. Still, my view is that Democrats at the head of the country would have sent the message that Americans are not all extremists either. And perceptions are as effective as actions because they shape so many actions. Kerry in power meant for me that even if he was caught up in the same trap of protecting his people for the sake of being a good leader, there would still have been more hopes for dialogue across the world, whereas now, well, it's just going to be more of the same.

The latest news is… Canadian pharmaceutical companies are busy developing stronger sleeping pills, for the elephant, and for themselves.

PS: As an important aside, someone reminded me of the less than unanimous mandate given to Bush. The Americans elected him, but the United States is still a "divided nation".